EurOil Index
Created and maintained by Dimitrios D.
Thomakos © 2007/2008
Past Trend Forecasts
Trend Forecasts for the
week of
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current
Prediction |
Error
Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
106.58 |
108.11 |
+/- 5.56 |
|
Oil |
10 |
103.9 |
105.60 |
+/- 5.45 |
|
Oil |
15 |
111.1 |
113.20 |
+/- 4.45 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.55 |
1.55 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.55 |
1.56 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.65 |
1.65 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past 287 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the standard error of trend deviations for
the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for the week of
[1.] Oil. The level of the series is still above its upper prediction
bound. The short-term outlook is for the level to move around its optimal trend
but the medium-term (4 to 6 weeks ahead) outlook is now a reversal within the
prediction bounds.
[2.] Euro. As predicted the Euro has returned within its optimal
prediction bounds. The short-term outlook is to move around its optimal trend
value.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current
Prediction |
Error
Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
105.24 |
106.58 |
+/- 5.51 |
|
Oil |
10 |
102.60 |
103.9 |
+/- 5.41 |
|
Oil |
15 |
109.50 |
111.1 |
+/- 4.42 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.54 |
1.55 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.54 |
1.55 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.64 |
1.65 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
286 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the standard
error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 04/28/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the
series has exceeded its optimal trend and the upper prediction bound. The
short-term outlook is for the level to move around its optimal trend but the
medium-term (4 to 6 weeks ahead) outlook is now a reversal within the
prediction bounds.
[2.] Euro. The level of the
series is exhibiting a sharp increase over the optimal upper prediction bound.
As in the case of Oil the medium-term (4 to 6 weeks ahead) outlook is a
reversal within the prediction bounds.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current
Prediction |
Error
Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
103.77 |
105.24 |
+/- 5.14 |
|
Oil |
10 |
101.50 |
102.60 |
+/- 5.39 |
|
Oil |
15 |
108.20 |
109.50 |
+/- 4.41 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.53 |
1.54 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.53 |
1.54 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.63 |
1.64 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past 285 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the standard error of trend deviations for
the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for the week of 04/21/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the series has hit the level of its optimal
trend, as predicted past week. The short-term outlook is still around its
optimal trend.
[2.] Euro. The level of the series is exhibiting a sharp increase over
the optimal upper bound. If this is not a permanent shift we anticipate that it
will be returning soon back within the optimal prediction bounds.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current
Prediction |
Error
Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
102.31 |
103.77 |
+/- 5.13 |
|
Oil |
10 |
100.36 |
101.50 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
107.00 |
108.20 |
+/- 4.41 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.53 |
1.53 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.53 |
1.53 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.63 |
1.63 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past 284 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the standard error of trend deviations for
the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for the week of 04/14/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the series has returned to its optimal trend, as
predicted. The short-term outlook is around its optimal trend.
[2.] Euro. The level of the series is exhibiting a sharp increase over
the optimal upper bound. If this is not a permanent shift we anticipate that it
will be returning soon back within the optimal prediction bounds.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 04/07/2008
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current
Prediction |
Error
Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
101.28 |
102.31 |
+/- 5.12 |
|
Oil |
10 |
99.61 |
100.36 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
106.02 |
107.00 |
+/- 4.41 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.52 |
1.53 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.52 |
1.53 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.61 |
1.63 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
283 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the standard
error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 04/07/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the
series has returned to its optimal trend, as predicted. The short-term outlook
is around its optimal trend.
[2.] Euro. The level of the
series is exhibiting a sharp increase over the optimal upper bound. If this is
not a permanent shift we anticipate that it will be returning soon back within
the optimal prediction bounds.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 03/31/2008
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current
Prediction |
Error
Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
100.71 |
101.28 |
+/- 5.12 |
|
Oil |
10 |
99.25 |
99.61 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
106.00 |
106.02 |
+/- 4.41 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.51 |
1.52 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.51 |
1.52 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.61 |
1.61 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
282 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 03/31/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the
series has returned to its optimal trend, as predicted. The short-term outlook
is around its optimal trend.
[2.] Euro. Similarly to Oil,
the level of the Euro has reversed to its optimal trend value. The short-term
outlook is around its optimal trend.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 03/24/2008
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current Prediction |
Error Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
99.56 |
100.71 |
+/- 5.12 |
|
Oil |
10 |
98.42 |
99.25 |
+/- 5.39 |
|
Oil |
15 |
105.05 |
106.00 |
+/- 4.41 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.50 |
1.51 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.50 |
1.51 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.60 |
1.61 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
281 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the standard
error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 03/24/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the
series has exceeded its upper prediction bound, as predicted last week. A
reversal is now anticipated in the short-term.
[2.] Euro. Similarly to Oil,
the level of the Euro has exceeded its upper prediction bound. A reversal is
now anticipated in the short-term.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 03/17/2008
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current Prediction |
Error Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
97.88 |
99.56 |
+/- 5.11 |
|
Oil |
10 |
97.15 |
98.42 |
+/- 5.39 |
|
Oil |
15 |
103.43 |
105.05 |
+/- 4.18 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.49 |
1.50 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.49 |
1.50 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.59 |
1.60 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
280 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the standard
error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 03/17/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the
series has exceeded its upper prediction bound, as predicted last week. A
reversal is now anticipated in the short-term.
[2.] Euro. Similarly to Oil,
the level of the Euro has exceeded its upper prediction bound. A reversal is
now anticipated in the short-term.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 03/10/2008
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current Prediction |
Error Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
96.36 |
97.88 |
+/- 5.09 |
|
Oil |
10 |
96.02 |
97.15 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
101.98 |
103.43 |
+/- 4.42 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.48 |
1.49 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.49 |
1.49 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.58 |
1.59 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
279 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the standard
error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 03/10/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the
series has reached the value of the upper bound of its predicted optimal trend.
The current short-term trend outlook is
above the predicted trend with a possible short-term sharp rise to or above the
upper bound of the optimal trend.
[2.] Euro. The level of the
series has reached the value of the upper bound of its predicted optimal trend
making a reversal over recent weeks. The current short-term outlook is along
the optimal trend with a possible exceedance of its upper bound before a
reversal.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 03/03/2008
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current
Prediction |
Error
Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
95.50 |
96.36 |
+/- 5.07 |
|
Oil |
10 |
95.43 |
96.02 |
+/- 5.37 |
|
Oil |
15 |
101.33 |
101.98 |
+/- 4.42 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.48 |
1.48 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.48 |
1.49 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.58 |
1.58 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
278 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 03/03/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the
series has reached the value of its predicted optimal trend. The current short-term trend outlook is along
the predicted trend with a possible short-term rise to the upper bound of the
optimal trend.
[2.] Euro. The level of the
series has fallen below the value of its optimal trend. The current short-term
outlook is for a possible drop to the lower bound of the optimal trend before a
reversal.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 02/25/2008
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current
Prediction |
Error
Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
94.39 |
95.50 |
+/- 5.07 |
|
Oil |
10 |
94.63 |
95.43 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
100.34 |
101.33 |
+/- 4.43 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.47 |
1.48 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.48 |
1.48 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.58 |
1.58 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
277 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from week
to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 02/25/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the
series has reached the value of its predicted optimal trend. The current short-term trend outlook is along
the predicted trend with a possible short-term rise to the upper bound of the
optimal trend.
[2.] Euro. The level of the
series has fallen below the value of its optimal trend. The current short-term
outlook is for a possible drop to the lower bound of the optimal trend before a
reversal.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 02/18/2008
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current
Prediction |
Error Band
Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
93.51 |
94.39 |
+/- 5.07 |
|
Oil |
10 |
94.01 |
94.63 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
99.61 |
100.34 |
+/- 4.43 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.47 |
1.47 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.48 |
1.48 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.58 |
1.58 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
276 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 02/18/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the
series has reached the value of its predicted optimal trend. The current short-term trend outlook is along
the predicted trend with a possible short-term rise to the upper bound of the
optimal trend.
[2.] Euro. The level of the
series has fallen below the value of its optimal trend. The current short-term
outlook is for a possible drop to the lower bound of the optimal trend before a
reversal.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 02/11/2008
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current
Prediction |
Error
Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
93.05 |
93.51 |
+/- 5.08 |
|
Oil |
10 |
93.75 |
94.01 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
99.37 |
99.61 |
+/- 4.26 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.47 |
1.47 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.48 |
1.48 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.58 |
1.58 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
275 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the standard
error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 02/11/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the
series is closing again on the value of its optimal trend. The current short-term trend outlook is along
the (optimal K) trend prediction.
[2.] Euro. The level of the
series was just above last weeks (optimal K) trend prediction. We still
maintain that the short-term trend movement will be within the prediction bands
of $1.42 to $1.50, with a possible rise close to $1.50.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current
Prediction |
Error
Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
92.32 |
93.05 |
+/- 5.08 |
|
Oil |
10 |
93.24 |
93.75 |
+/- 5.39 |
|
Oil |
15 |
98.75 |
99.37 |
+/- 4.41 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.46 |
1.47 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.47 |
1.48 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.58 |
1.58 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
274 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 02/04/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the
series re-bounced sharply and is closing again on the value of its optimal
trend. The current short-term trend
outlook is along the (optimal K) trend prediction.
[2.] Euro. The level of the
series was just above last weeks (optimal K) trend prediction. We still
maintain that the short-term trend movement will be within the prediction bands
of $1.42 to $1.50, with a possible rise close to $1.50.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 01/28/2008
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current Prediction |
Error Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
92.44 |
92.32 |
+/- 5.09 |
|
Oil |
10 |
93.44 |
93.24 |
+/- 5.39 |
|
Oil |
15 |
99.15 |
98.75 |
+/- 4.39 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.46 |
1.46 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.47 |
1.47 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.58 |
1.58 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
273 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of
[1.] Oil. The level of the
series has made a sharp correction due to the recent global turmoil and has
dropped below its optimal trend. A positive short-term correction is
anticipated.
[2.] Euro. The current level
continues to move close to the value of its optimal trend. We still maintain
that the short-term trend movement will be within the prediction bands of $1.42
to $1.50, with a possible rise close to $1.50.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current Prediction |
Error Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
91.85 |
92.44 |
+/- 5.08 |
|
Oil |
10 |
93.03 |
93.44 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
98.60 |
99.15 |
+/- 4.35 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.46 |
1.46 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.46 |
1.47 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.57 |
1.58 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
272 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 01/21/2008
[1.] Oil. The level of the
series has made a correction and has dropped towards its optimal trend. We
believe that the level of the series will hover close to the optimal trend
value, with a possible short-term positive correction.
[2.] Euro. The current level
has risen sharply towards the upper bound of the (optimal K) prediction band.
We still maintain that the short-term trend movement will be within the
prediction bands of $1.42 to $1.50, with a possible rise close to $1.50.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 01/14/2008
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current Prediction |
Error Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
90.86 |
91.85 |
+/- 5.09 |
|
Oil |
10 |
92.28 |
93.03 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
97.32 |
98.60 |
+/- 4.34 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.45 |
1.46 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.46 |
1.46 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.57 |
1.57 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
271 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 01/14/2008
[1.] Oil. The current level
of the series is below the upper bound of the (optimal K) prediction band. We
maintain the same outlook as last week, if the series exceeds this upper bound
the trend level can reach or exceed the highest trend prediction of about $98.
[2.] Euro. The current level
of the series still moves within the (optimal K) prediction bands. We still
maintain that the potential short-term movement is within the prediction bands
around the value of the optimal trend, $1.41-$1.49.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 01/07/2008
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current Prediction |
Error Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
89.72 |
90.86 |
+/- 5.08 |
|
Oil |
10 |
91.39 |
92.28 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
96.19 |
97.32 |
+/- 4.34 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.45 |
1.45 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.46 |
1.46 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.56 |
1.57 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
270 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 01/07/2008
[1.] Oil. The current level
of the series almost reached the upper bound of the (optimal K) prediction
band, as predicted the week before. The short-term movement of the series can
possibly exceed this upper bound in which case the trend level can reach or
exceed the highest trend prediction of about $97.
[2.] Euro. The current level
of the series still moves within the (optimal K) prediction bands. We still
maintain that the potential short-term movement is within the prediction bands
around the value of the optimal trend, $1.41-$1.49.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 12/31/2007
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current Prediction |
Error Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
88.77 |
89.72 |
+/- 5.08 |
|
Oil |
10 |
90.65 |
91.39 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
95.06 |
96.19 |
+/- 4.34 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.44 |
1.45 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.45 |
1.46 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.56 |
1.56 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
269 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 12/31/2007
[1.] Oil. The current level
of the series exceeds the value of its optimal trend and rises towards the
upper bound of the prediction band. There is potential for a short-term rally
toward the upper bound at about $95.
[2.] Euro. The current level
of the series is in a correction. The potential short-term movement is within
the prediction bands around the value of the optimal trend, $1.41-$1.49.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 12/24/2007
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current Prediction |
Error Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
87.73 |
88.77 |
+/- 5.07 |
|
Oil |
10 |
89.81 |
90.65 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
93.76 |
95.06 |
+/- 4.34 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.44 |
1.44 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.45 |
1.45 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.56 |
1.56 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
268 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 12/24/2007
[1.] Oil. The current level
of the series slightly exceeds the value of its optimal trend and still within
the prediction bands. The potential short-term outlook is movement within the
prediction bands around the value of the optimal trend.
[2.] Euro. The current level
of the series has made a correction. The potential short-term movement is
within the prediction bands around the value of the optimal trend.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 12/17/2007
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current Prediction |
Error Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
87.22 |
87.73 |
+/- 5.07 |
|
Oil |
10 |
89.39 |
89.81 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
93.07 |
93.76 |
+/- 4.34 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.44 |
1.44 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.45 |
1.45 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.55 |
1.56 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
267 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 12/17/2007
[1.] Oil. The current level
of the series is aligned with the value of its optimal trend, being well within
the prediction bands. The potential short-term outlook is movement within the
prediction bands around the value of the optimal trend. A further decrease of
the level of the series below its optimal trend value will possibly take it to
the lower bound of the predictive band of $82.
[2.] Euro. The current level
of the series is still below the short-term (K=15) and long-term (K=5) trend
components we are examining and is slightly below the upper error band of the
optimal trend. We maintain that there is a medium-term possibility for an
increase of the level of the series as a short-term correction is not
anticipated, especially if the level crosses the upper prediction band of
$1.47.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 12/10/2007
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current Prediction |
Error Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
Optimal |
86.47 |
87.22 |
+/- 5.07 |
|
Oil |
10 |
89.35 |
89.39 |
+/- 5.38 |
|
Oil |
15 |
92.94 |
93.07 |
+/- 4.32 |
|
Euro |
Optimal |
1.43 |
1.44 |
+/- 0.04 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.44 |
1.45 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.55 |
1.55 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
266 weeks.
[2.] Optimal K may change from
week to week , see discussion above.
[3.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[4.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 12/10/2007
[1.] Oil. The current level
of the series is trending towards the value of its optimal trend and has made a
short-term reversal, as predicted over the past two weeks. We maintain that the
short-term the level of the series will stay with the approximate error bands,
in the range of about $82 to $92.
[2.] Euro. The current level
of the series is still below the short-term (K=15) and long-term (K=5) trend
components we are examining and is slightly below the upper error band. We
maintain that there is a medium-term possibility for an increase of the level
of the series although a short-term correction can be anticipated if the level
drops within the error bands of $1.40 to $1.48.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 12/03/2007
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current Prediction |
Error Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
10 |
87.93 |
89.35 |
+/- 5.37 |
|
Oil |
15 |
90.74 |
92.94 |
+/- 4.31 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.43 |
1.44 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.54 |
1.55 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
265 weeks.
[2.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[3.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 12/03/2007
[1.] Oil. The current level
of the series is above the three trend components we are examining. The
short-term trends (K=10, 15) appear to be positive but there is a significant
gap between the short-term trends and the long-term trend (K=5). Potential for
a possible short-to-medium term reversal of the level of the series towards the
trend forecasts.
[2.] Euro. The current level
of the series is below the short-term (K=15) and long-term (K=5) trend
components we are examining. The rising long-term trend suggests a possible
short-to-medium term increase of the level of the series above the long-term
trend forecast.
Trend Forecasts for the
week of 11/26/2007
|
Series |
K |
Last Prediction |
Current Prediction |
Error Band Current Prediction |
|
Oil |
10 |
86.95 |
87.93 |
+/- 5.35 |
|
Oil |
15 |
89.10 |
90.74 |
+/- 4.28 |
|
Euro |
10 |
1.43 |
1.43 |
+/- 0.03 |
|
Euro |
15 |
1.53 |
1.54 |
+/- 0.02 |
Notes:
[1.] Trend forecasts based on past
264 weeks.
[2.] Error bands based on the
standard error of trend deviations for the past 200 weeks.
[3.] Monday data used in
calculations.
Trend Forecast Summary for
the week of 11/26/2007
[1.] Oil. The current level
of the series is above the three trend components we are examining. The
short-term trends (K=10, 15) appear to be positive but there is a significant
gap between the short-term trends and the long-term trend (K=5) which suggests
a possible short-to-medium term reversal of the level of the series.
[2.] Euro. The current level
of the series is below the short-term (K=15) and long-term (K=5) trend
components we are examining. The rising long-term trend suggests a possible
short-to-medium term increase of the level of the series.